As the world faces an escalating climate emergency, international leadership has entered a state of flux. The United States, under the Trump administration, has taken an overtly anti-climate stance—pulling out of the Paris Agreement, escalating trade wars, and increasing oil and gas drilling. With Europe focused on internal security challenges, the world finds itself in urgent need of new leadership. China may be ready to step in.
Xi Jinping’s Vision for Climate Leadership
During the recent Leaders Meeting on Climate and the Just Transition, President Xi Jinping reiterated China’s commitment to climate governance, calling on the international community to unite under the principles of multilateralism, solidarity, and just transition.
He outlined four core principles:
- Multilateralism
- Reinforce the UN-centered international system.
- Promote international law, fairness, and cooperation.
- Address the climate crisis through global governance, not isolation.
- International Cooperation
- Overcome estrangement through openness and inclusiveness.
- Foster global green tech exchange.
- Expand South-South cooperation to help developing nations access clean technologies and finance.
- A People-Centered Just Transition
- Balance climate goals with economic growth, poverty alleviation, and job creation.
- Ensure transitions are equitable, especially for vulnerable communities.
- Developed nations must support the Global South with technology and funding.
- Results-Driven Action
- Enhance implementation of national climate targets (NDCs).
- China will present new comprehensive targets—covering all economic sectors and greenhouse gases—before COP30 in Belém, Brazil.
The Context: Why China’s Leadership Matters
With the U.S. retreating from climate diplomacy, and only 15 countries having met the February 2025 deadline to submit new emission targets, the credibility of the Paris Agreement has come under strain.
China has taken a “wait and see” approach in response to global political turbulence. However, its recent moves—particularly the announcement of full-sector GHG targets—suggest a new phase of leadership.
Leadership vs. Responsibility: Can the World’s Top Polluter Lead the Green Transition?
While the United States continues to step back from sustained climate leadership, China—despite being the largest CO₂ emitter globally with 31.5% of total emissions—is asserting itself as a climate leader. In comparison, the U.S. contributes 13% of global CO₂ emissions, but shows less engagement in driving the international climate agenda. This paradox presents a critical turning point: can the biggest source of emissions become the most influential force for climate solutions? If China’s government is serious about cutting emissions and meeting its ambitious environmental targets, the global outlook could shift dramatically. The inclusion of a data chart from Our World in Data further highlights this imbalance and emphasizes what’s at stake. The world will be watching whether China’s leadership aspirations are matched by sustained, measurable progress.
Domestic Challenges: Progress and Gaps
While China has made historic progress in clean energy, significant internal challenges remain:
- Coal Dependency: Over 60% of China’s electricity still comes from coal.
- Inconsistent Local Policies: Some provincial governments continue to approve new coal-fired power plants.
- Transparency Gaps: International observers call for clearer disclosure of progress and financing mechanisms.
China’s Draft 2035 Climate Commitments: A Comprehensive Plan
A draft of China’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) reveals a bold, sector-wide approach:
Proposed Targets:
- CO₂: 30% cut vs 2023 levels.
- Non-CO₂ gases (e.g., methane): 35% reduction.
- Electricity:
- -30% emissions,
- 40% non-fossil energy,
- 5,000 GW renewable capacity,
- Ban on new unabated coal plants.
- Industry:
- -25% overall,
- 45% cut in steel, 20% in cement.
- Transport:
- Return to 2020 emissions,
- 60% EV sales,
- Expanded rail networks.
- Buildings:
- -40% emissions,
- Retrofit 25% of buildings,
- 40% renewable heating.
- Forests:
- 15% afforestation increase vs 2025.
These ambitious goals reflect China’s growing confidence and its intent to transition from fossil fuels to sustainable, long-term economic growth.
Financing the Global Transition: China’s Role in the Global South
China has become a key player in climate finance, particularly for developing countries:
- Despite its “developing country” status in UN climate talks (which exempts it from financial obligations), China has already mobilized $24.5 billion for:
- Clean energy infrastructure,
- Disaster recovery,
- Climate resilience projects.
- Ranked as the 5th largest climate finance contributor, China still faces pressure to:
- Improve transparency on project locations and impacts.
- Involve local communities in planning and implementation.
Reforming the Global Financial Architecture
China is also pushing for systemic change in how global finance addresses climate issues:
As co-chair of the G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group, it’s advocating for increased funding and better alignment with the Paris Agreement.
It supports reforms in international tax cooperation and development financing to make green investment more accessible.
Clean Technology Superpower: Exporting the Energy Transition
China leads the world in:
- Renewable energy production,
- Battery manufacturing,
- Electric vehicle (EV) sales,
- Solar and wind technologies.
However, many developing nations lack the infrastructure to fully benefit from these innovations.
China can expand its leadership by:
- Partnering with Global South countries to build local capacity,
- Sharing know-how, not just hardware,
- Investing in supply chains and grid upgrades, ensuring the effectiveness of clean technologies.
Conclusion: Will China Seize the Climate Leadership Mantle?
In an era of fragmented leadership and rising climate risks, China holds both the capacity and the responsibility to drive the world’s transition to a low-carbon future. With its ambitious national targets, rapidly expanding green technology sector, increasing influence in climate finance, and consistent diplomatic messaging, China is emerging as a strong contender to fill the leadership vacuum left by Western powers in retreat.
As the global community turns its focus to COP30, all eyes are on China. What matters now is not only the promises it makes, but the actions it takes. The true test of leadership will be whether China follows through and establishes itself as the new foundation of global sustainability.
AI – generated image.
Sources: The world needs climate change leadership – it’s time for China to step up; https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202504/24/content_WS680974c3c6d0868f4e8f2027.html; United States: CO2 Country Profile – Our World in Data
